They say hindsight is always 20/20 – so the question remains, if there were a tool that could predict whether or not your marriage would last – would you believe it?
New Marriage Calculator Predicts the Odds of Divorce
Good news! If you’re worried about whether or not your marriage will last, you can consult the “Marriage Calculator” at divorce360.com to see how likely to you are to get a divorce. Read more here »
The calculator is based on several factors such as your:
- gender
- age at marriage
- education level
- when you were married
- how long you’ve been married
The marriage calculator a.k.a. the divorce calculator is the creation of Betsey Stevenson, an assistant professor of business and public policy at University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School. The tool was created to predict the probability of success (or failure) of a first marriage, not subsequent marriages.
The divorce calculator uses historical data for similar people to predict your future risk of divorce. Remember, this tool is not a crystal ball – instead it provides an estimate based on information given by real people and collected as part of the U.S. Census.
The divorce calculator lives over at Divorce 360 and yet, with this information in hand the question still remains – would you STILL have married your ex-spouse even if you had taken the test before you were married? Would you still have said, “I Do” even when faced with an incredibly poor prediction rate?
According to the site, when it comes to the five-year divorce prediction rates, those with less than 3 percent are at lower risk for divorce. Those with a five- year divorce prediction rate in the 3 – 7 percent range are of average risk. A five year divorce prediction rate of more than 7 percent are at high risk.
According to Trend Hunter,
Today’s instant marriages and rapid divorces are rife among us. The old figure that states that half of first marriages end within 15 years is pretty accurate–it is actually 43%, with one in five marriages ending in 5 years, and one in three in 10 years.
A lot of feedback on the Divorce 360 site is along the lines of “I wish I’d known” -but would you really have called off your wedding if faced with a 10% divorce prediction rate from an online calculator?
